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金色香江晨报 20180122 - 1月 22, 2018 (5 页)  

中国宏观 萧智舜
油价仍向上;H股全流通股价短期下行长期向好 - 1月 12, 2018 (4 页)  
EIA数据显示截至17年12月29日当周,美国原油库存超于预期减少,连续7周录得下滑。预计2018年中国原油进口还将继续走高。另一方面,, OPEC 12月原油产量小幅增加。我们预计由于美国原油库存超于预期减少的净影响较大,油价将小幅向上。宏观方面,人行降準,建立“临时准备金动用安排”保春节期间临时流动性需求。H股全流通允许这些H股公司的境内大股东在市场上出售其原先限售的股份,长远提升这些优质H股股份的流动性及估值,但其股价短期将有下行风险。此外,这将增加港交所的成交量。

China Healthcare On demand for anti-viral flu drugs - 1月 17, 2018 (5 页)  
On 13 Jan 2018, Xinhua News cited that medical centres in Beijing has been on tightening sentiment for their Oseltamivir inventory, a potent anti-viral flu drug. We see HK-listed HEC Pharm’s (1558.HK, Non-rated) Kewei, a generic version of Tamiflu®, will continue to enjoy anti-viral flu drug demand. Should any viral flu outbreak occurs in China, HK-listed HEC Pharm, Sinopharm (1099.HK, BUY, TP:HKD42.75) and SSY Group (2005.HK, NR) would likely benefit.
沪深股市每周策略 20180117 - 1月 17, 2018 (6 页)  
沪深股市每周策略 20180111 - 1月 11, 2018 (6 页)  
China Healthcare Big is better for consistency evaluation - 1月 10, 2018 (4 页)  
On 29 Dec 2017, China FDA announced the first batch of 17 generic drug names to have passed consistency evaluation on their quality and efficacy (仿制药质量和疗效一致性评价), mainly heart & brain medicines. Only one drug from HK-listed drug-maker had been included, namely Sinobiopharm’s (1177.HK, NR) Tuotuo托妥 (generic version of Crestor®). We see products from larger drug-makers would likely fulfill the consistency evaluation, including those from Sinobiopharm, CSPC (1093.HK, NR) and Fosun Pharm (2196.HK, NR).

HK and China Market: Picking a new constituent stock for HSI - 8月 15, 2017 (7 页)   萧智舜
Sina News, on 10 Aug, quoted that Hang Seng Index (HSI) will likely include another qualified stock to substitute the delisted Belle International. We shortlist the top 100 qualified HK stocks based on HSI Index method criteria. Sunny Optical (2382.HK) is the one highly appraised by the market, and #3 highest ranked hardware stock in our HSI eligibility list (after AAC Tech and ZTE). While Standard Chartered Bank (2888.HK, NR) and CSPC (1093.HK, NR) are the top ranked eligible stocks in (non-H shares) financial and healthcare sectors respectively.
HK and China Market: Looking for the heavyweight stocks - 8月 4, 2017 (10 页)   萧智舜
On HSI likely replicating its bull-run in mid-2015, we re-iterate our stance for HSI to achieve 31,000 points at 14.0x 12-month forward P/E in near-term from 12.6x currently, vs HSI’s 2015 highest at 14.3x. Tencent, Ping An and HSBC lead our HSI constituent stock list for the biggest market cap and highest stock turnover. On the same selection criteria, Ping An, CCB and ICBC come out the top of both our HSCEI constituent stock list and our H-share list reported previously, whose China A-share will be included into MSCI. Downside: HSI may fall to its Feb 2016’s lowest of 10.0x P/E at 22,177 points.
China/HK Stock Connect: Jogging with HK market - 7月 31, 2017 (17 页)   萧智舜
With (1) more Chinese capital flocking to HK shares via stock connect; and (2) overseas money likely switching to Asian equities from the already-overrun US stock market, Hang Seng Index (HSI) has surged over 23% YTD. We expect the current HK shares rally will likely replicate the last bull-run in 2015, with HSI to attain 31,000 at 14.0x 12-month forward P/E (27 May 2015: 14.3x). While Ping An, CCB and ICBC come out the top of our H-share list for the biggest market cap and highest turnover, whose China A-shares will be added into MSCI. Downside: HSI falls to its Feb 2016’s lowest of 10.0x P/E at 22,177.


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