Guosen Securities (HK)  
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绝对回报 (%) (1.48) (1.48) (7.50) (10.24) (22.56) (12.14) 0 (11.44)
绝对回报 (美元, %) (1.48) (1.48) (7.50) (10.24) N.A. (11.11) N.A. (10.96)
相对于 HSI 回报 (%) 0.34 2.75 1.27 (4.31) N.A. (0.84) 7.41 5.87
中国中药 (570 HK) 配方颗粒销售的好势头持续 - 8月 25, 2018 (8 页)  

China TCM (570 HK) No doubt about growth momentum - 5月 9, 2018 (7 页)  
Being the market leader and pioneer of Chinese medicine formula granule (CCMG), we believe China TCM’s active sales/marketing coverage and smart dispensing machines will keep its CCMG sales over 21% y-o-y growth in 2018F-19F. Expanding its decoction pieces’ production capacity helps lift its y-o-y total revenue to 22%/21%/19% in FY18F-20F from 17%/16%/14%. Keep BUY with higher SOTP-TP at HKD8.50 on bigger CCMG and decoction pieces sales.

China TCM (570 HK) Growth stays sustainable - 4月 3, 2018 (9 页)  
China TCM, on 28 Mar, released its FY17 net profit at RMB1.2bn, while core profit of RMB1,187m (+26% y-o-y) was consistent with ours and Bloomberg consensus. Post analyst meeting, in 2018F-19F, we keep our y-o-y sales growth from (1) finished drug at 10%/12%; and (2) concentrated TCM granules (CCMG) at 19%/17% on more partnerships with peers, hospital coverage and smart dispensing machines to serve more patients. Keep BUY with higher SOTP-TP of HKD6.80 on bigger valuation of its finished drugs & CCMG leadership.

China Healthcare Focus on biotech and high-end drugmakers - 3月 14, 2018 (18 页)  
In the upcoming (Dec-ended) result season and from those stocks we actively cover, we expect biotech (Genscript) and high-end drugmakers (3SBio and Livzon Pharm) to have in-line results with Bloomberg consensus and ours. Moreover, concentrated Chinese medicine granule (CCMG) leader (China TCM) is forecast to beat consensus, on recovering finished drug and stable CCMG sales and margins. We see drug-makers like United Lab, Luye and Sinopharm as the key distributor would likely fall short of consensus estimate.

China TCM (570 HK) Future outlook stays bright - 8月 22, 2017 (9 页)  
China TCM, on 20 Aug, released its 1H17 result with core profit of RMB615m (+26% y-o-y), 10% beat ours and consensus. Post analyst meeting, in 2017-19, we keep our y-o-y sales growth from (1) finished drug at high single digit; and (2) TCM granules at high-teens on more alliances, factories and provinces with reimbursement. Re-iterate BUY with higher SOTP-TP on bigger revenue and lower opex to sales.

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