Guosen Securities (HK)  
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绝对回报 (%) (1.55) (4.29) 2.86 15.52 51.84 89.02 0 45.42
绝对回报 (美元, %) (1.55) (4.29) 2.86 15.53 N.A. 91.22 N.A. 46.20
相对于 HSI 回报 (%) 0.27 (0.06) 11.63 21.46 N.A. 100.32 7.41 62.73
联邦制药 (3933 HK) 销售额及利润率继续回升 - 9月 11, 2018 (8 页)  

Healthy 2018 insulin outlook - 4月 3, 2018 (9 页)  
United Lab, on 28 Mar, released its FY17 earnings at RMB82m, while core profit of RMB263m beat ours of RMB117m but below consensus (FY16: -RMB60m). Post briefing, we see, in 2018, (1) 6-APA prices to stay high at RMB210-230/ton (FY17: RMB200/t); (2) 2nd gen insulin sales at 15m vials (FY17: 13m); and (3) Glargin sales to double from 2017. If all 3rd gen insulin starts sales, our TP will offer 77% upside vs current price. Keep BUY with lower TP of HKD11.00 on higher WACC.

China Healthcare Focus on biotech and high-end drugmakers - 3月 14, 2018 (18 页)  
In the upcoming (Dec-ended) result season and from those stocks we actively cover, we expect biotech (Genscript) and high-end drugmakers (3SBio and Livzon Pharm) to have in-line results with Bloomberg consensus and ours. Moreover, concentrated Chinese medicine granule (CCMG) leader (China TCM) is forecast to beat consensus, on recovering finished drug and stable CCMG sales and margins. We see drug-makers like United Lab, Luye and Sinopharm as the key distributor would likely fall short of consensus estimate.

The United Lab (3933 HK) 113% TP upside post 3rd gen insulin approvals - 2月 9, 2018 (13 页)  
United Lab (UL) announced its insulin aspart (门冬胰岛素) application for production permit had been accepted by CFDA on 15 Nov 2017. We expect it to start sales in mid-2019. Albeit of our FY17F-19F earnings cut on bigger production cost, we add the R&D valuation for all insulin sales, lifting our TP to HKD11.20. Should all 3rd gen insulin start sales, our TP will offer 113% upside vs current price. Keep BUY.

The United Lab (3933 HK) Good upstream pricing sustainable - 8月 28, 2017 (8 页)  
On 24 Aug, United Lab (UL) reported its 1H17 earnings at RMB109m. Without one-off items, it reduced to RMB68m (ours: RMB32m), but turned around from 1H16’s net loss of RMB23m. Post Management update, in 2017, we see (1) 6-APA pricing to sustain high at over RMB185/ton; (2) 2nd gen insulin sales to 13m vials (1H17: 4.4m) down from previous 15m; (3) Glargin to have RMB21m sales. Keep BUY with higher SOTP-TP at HKD9.60 on bigger sales and smaller opex to sales.

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