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金斯瑞生物科技 (1548 HK) 医疗保健
分析师 建议 目标股价 上升/下降(%)
萧智舜 买入 HKD34.50 45.6
总市值(十亿港元/十亿美元) 日均成交额(百万美元) 收盘 1月 22 52周最高/最低(港元)
41.2/5.3 38.8 HKD23.70 3.1 - 27.4
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绝对回报 (%) (0.84) 9.22 11.27 142.08 419.74 624.77 18.62 18.62
绝对回报 (美元, %) (0.85) 9.29 11.23 141.68 419.17 619.12 18.56 18.56
相对于 HSI 回报 (%) (1.27) 5.85 1.75 128.37 398.44 583.23 10.35 10.35
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) 124% TP upside post all INDs for CAR-T drug - 1月 3, 2018 (10 页)  
On 27 Dec 17, Genscript announced to acquire Customarray Inc, an US’s oligo-DNA service provider. Also on 22 Dec, Janssen Biotech (Johnson & Johnson’s company) agreed to collaborate and invest to Genscript at USD350m on CAR-T. Albeit of bigger R&D cost to sales, our SOTP-TP rises to HKD34.50 on higher CAR-T’s (pipeline) success probability, and treatment cost. Should its CAR-T drug attain all IND approvals, our TP will offer 124% upside vs. current price. Keep BUY.

Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) CAR-T drug’s China IND likely by end-2Q18 - 12月 21, 2017 (6 页)  
From the list of trial medicines announced on 18 Dec by China Centre for Drug Evaluation, Genscript’s CAR-T medicine (LCAR-B38M) had been included into China FDA’s priority review list for Investigational New Drug (IND) status. We reckon this IND approval time will be as early as by end-2Q18, against our previous expectation by end-2018. Moreover, we keep our existing probability of success (pipeline), R&D valuation and TP. Maintain BUY.

Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) CAR-T leads to 161% TP upside post US’s IND - 12月 18, 2017 (9 页)  
On 10 Dec, Genscript had presented its CAR-T work for blood cancer with decent result in American Society of Hematology. Its CAR-T drug application to CFDA for investigational new drug (IND) was accepted on 11 Dec. Adding new R&D valuation with probability of success, our risk-adjusted SOTP-TP climbs to HKD24.20 (from HKD7.00), providing 74% upside and lifting Genscript a BUY. Should its CAR-T drug attain US’s IND by end-1Q18, TP will offer 161% upside from current price.

Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) CAR-T R&D worth more - 9月 1, 2017 (9 页)  
On 28 Aug, Genscript Biotech’s 1H17 core net profit of USD16m (+16% y-o-y) beat ours 4%. After our NDR on 30 Aug, we expect its (1) sales and production revamp on research catalog product and industrial enzyme to be finished by early 2018; and (2) CAR-T R&D valuation to be HKD8.17/s (or HKD16bn). Keep Neutral but higher TP at HKD7.00, on rolling valuation base year to FY18F and bigger PEG of 1.9x.

金斯瑞生物科技(1548 HK) 前景稳健,但现价完全反映其估值 - 4月 7, 2017 (9 页)  
3月20日,金斯瑞生物科技公告其2016财年的核心净利润为2,800万美元,超过我们预计的2,400万美元。如果除去外汇收益600万美元,净利润应该是2,200万美元,同比增长62%。因其研究服务和工业酶的销售前景进一步亮丽,我们预计其2017年的前景仍然稳健。因其2017-2018年有更大的销售额和更高的毛利率,目标价增加至4.95港元,但评级降至持有(市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG) 已从1.0倍增加至1.5倍)。

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