Guosen Securities (HK)  
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分析师 建议 目标股价 上升/下降(%)
总市值(十亿/十亿美元) 日均成交额(百万美元) 收盘 52周最高/最低()
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绝对回报 (%) (5.91) (14.95) (20.90) (31.03) (6.79) 42.13 (16.37) (8.74)
绝对回报 (美元, %) (5.91) (14.94) (20.91) (31.03) (7.13) 41.66 (16.37) (9.15)
相对于 HSI 回报 (%) (6.33) (10.88) (17.47) (18.98) 5.75 42.61 (11.58) 0.31
3SBIO Inc (1530 HK) CITIC stake sales do not change fundamental - 6月 13, 2018 (9 页)  
On 5 Jun, 3SBio announced that CITIC Private Equity China had sold 149m shares, c.6% of the company’s issued shares, likely to the institutional investors. Post transaction, CITIC’s holding in 3SBio will be cut to 18.6% from 24.5% of total issued shares. We see CITIC will likely take at least a couple of years to dispose its 3SBio stakes under well plan. We now factor in Bydureon sales at RMB70m/RMB162m in FY18F/19F, and move 3SBio’s DCF valuation base year to 2019. Maintain BUY with higher TP at HKD24.80.

3SBIO Inc (1530 HK) Dual catalysts to stay for 2018 - 4月 3, 2018 (13 页)  
3SBio, on 26 March, released its 2017 net profit at RMB935m, while core earnings of RMB904m surged 25% y-o-y, in-line with our and Bloomberg estimate. Post result briefing, we are confident of (1) TPIAO and Yisaipu to attain c.20% y-o-y sales growth in 2018; and (2) acquisition of Therapure Biomanufacturing possibly to complete by end-April (delayed from end-2017). Our DCF-TP now points to HKD23.20, on brighter core products’ sales and margin. If Bydureon (diabetic) sales crystallizes by 2Q18, TP will offer another 10% upside.

China Healthcare Focus on biotech and high-end drugmakers - 3月 14, 2018 (18 页)  
In the upcoming (Dec-ended) result season and from those stocks we actively cover, we expect biotech (Genscript) and high-end drugmakers (3SBio and Livzon Pharm) to have in-line results with Bloomberg consensus and ours. Moreover, concentrated Chinese medicine granule (CCMG) leader (China TCM) is forecast to beat consensus, on recovering finished drug and stable CCMG sales and margins. We see drug-makers like United Lab, Luye and Sinopharm as the key distributor would likely fall short of consensus estimate.

China Healthcare CSPC, Luye & Sinobiopharm shined in Fujian - 12月 12, 2017 (6 页)  
Recently, Fujian’s controlled procurement website for drugs (福建省药品联合限价阳光采购网药品) issued its top 20 best selling hospital medicines by sales value from Sept to Nov 2017. Pfizer’s Lipitor has been ranked #1 in Fujian procurement during the period. NBP of CSPC (1093.HK, NR), Beixi of Luye Pharm (2186.HK, BUY, TP:HKD5.40) and Kaifen of Sinobiopharm (1177.HK, NR) have hit the top 20 positions.

3SBIO Inc (1530 HK) Multiple catalysts to brighten up in 2018 - 11月 23, 2017 (38 页)  
We initiate our BUY coverage on 3SBio with DCF-TP at HKD22.00 (40% upside). This implies 48.0x FY18F P/E (30.7x EV/EBITDA) at 2.5x PEG, consistent with HK sector mean. Our valuation is justified on its (1) being China largest biodrug maker with 21% EPS CAGR (FY16-19) and (2) pioneer in blood market drugs; (3) multiple catalysts in 2018 including to be a global OEM provider for biodrugs. Should Bydureon (diabetic) sales to crystallize in 2018, TP will offer another 20% upside.

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