Guosen Securities (HK)  
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萧智舜 - 研究部主管
+852 2899 6747

三生制药( 1530 HK) | 买入 | HKD23.2 生物技术与制药
中国中药( 570 HK) | 买入 | HKD6.8 生物技术与制药
金斯瑞生物科技( 1548 HK) | 买入 | HKD36.2 生物技术与制药
雅各臣科研製药( 2633 HK) | 买入 | HKD2.5 生物技术与制药
丽珠集团( 1513 HK) | 买入 | HKD78.6 生物技术与制药
绿叶制药( 2186 HK) | 买入 | HKD11.46 生物技术与制药
四环医药( 460 HK) | 买入 | HKD6.65 生物技术与制药
联邦制药( 3933 HK) | 买入 | HKD11 生物技术与制药
国药控股( 1099 HK) | 买入 | HKD40.2 卫生保健设施/服务
康宁医院( 2120 HK) | 买入 | HKD51.17 卫生保健设施/服务
山东威高( 1066 HK) | 买入 | HKD7 医疗设备

Cancer drugs: No import tax but price cut - 4月 17, 2018 (4 页)  
On 12 April, the State Council of China cited the details of the executive meeting hosted by Premier Li Keqiang. The limelight was to cut import tax for foreign anti-cancer drugs to zero from 2%-5% in the past, effective 1 May 2018. With all the associated measures such as centralised procurement, we expect these foreign drugs need to sacrifice their selling price for bigger sales volume boost in China, similar to the case in Beijing for Herceptin. However, local anti-cancer drugs would have more pricing advantage than these imported drugs.

山东威高(1066 HK) | 买入 | HK$7 萧智舜
Shandong Weigao (1066 HK) Eyes on Argon as the new driver - 4月 23, 2018 (9 页)  
Shandong Weigao had completed its acquisition of Argon Medical Devices in US on 24 Jan 2018. In 2018, we see Weigao sales from consumables/ orthopaedic and total revenue growth y-o-y at 11%/13%/36%, expecting Argon to turn net profit in 2020 and having Weigao’s EPS CAGR (FY17-20F) at 15.2%. Adding Argon’s valuation, our SOTP-TP rises to HKD7.00 (from HKD6.35). Upgrade to BUY.
国药控股(1099 HK) | 买入 | HK$40.2 萧智舜
Sinopharm (1099 HK) Market leader with no fear of the storm - 4月 12, 2018 (7 页)  
On 10 April, Sinopharm issued profit warning with 1Q18 earnings to fall 30% y-o-y, on (1) less drug sales via hospitals to outpatients and controlled medical reimbursement; and (2) more opex to sales/ finance costs for deeper sales coverage. We see Sinopharm as #1 distributor will pick up sales and cost control, having earnings growth by end of each year. Maintain BUY with lower SOTP-TP at HKD40.20.
绿叶制药(2186 HK) | 买入 | HK$11.46 萧智舜
Luye Pharma Group (2186 HK) Jan-Feb 18 on track and R&D on progress - 4月 12, 2018 (6 页)  
On 10 April, Luye Pharm announced its LY03003 (Rotigotine Extended Release Microsphers) has been approved from the CFDA to proceed to China’s Phase III clinical trial. From Jan to Feb 2018, based on IQVIA, existing core products sales of Lipusu, Beixi and Xuezhikang at 26%/22%/11% y-o-y growth appear to be broadly on-track with our full-year growth at 17%/29%/15% y-o-y. Maintain BUY with higher TP at HKD11.46 on bigger LY03003’s success rate for R&D valuation.
丽珠集团(1513 HK) | 买入 | HK$78.6 萧智舜
Livzon Pharma (1513 HK) Growth supported by IIaprazole types - 4月 11, 2018 (12 页)  
Livzon Pharm, on 25 Mar, released its 2017 net profit at RMB4.4bn (+465% y-o-y) on property disposal gain; core profit rose 20% y-o-y to RMB820m, 7% below ours and Bloomberg estimate. In 2018, we see (1) broadly a 7% y-o-y product price cut; (2) Ilaprazole injection just started sales, accelerating FY18-19 revenue growth to 18%/19% y-o-y. Keep BUY with lower DCF-TP at HKD78.60 on lower sales and margin.
绿叶制药(2186 HK) | 买入 | HK$11.3 萧智舜
Luye Pharma Group (2186 HK) Lifting TP on adding major R&D valuation - 4月 9, 2018 (21 页)  
On 26 Mar, Luye Pharm released its FY17 net profit at RMB981m; core profit at RMB1,061m (+14% y-o-y) beat ours and Bloomberg estimate by 19%/14%. Both the company and we are confident of, in FY18, (1) Lipusu’s competition with generic Abraxane will not occur on its good record of efficacy; and (2) Beixi sales to keep 30% y-o-y. Our SOTP-TP climbs to HKD11.30, on (1) higher sales and lower opex to sales; and (2) adding drug delivery’s and biodrug’s R&D valuation. Keep BUY.












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