Guosen Securities (HK)  
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萧智舜 - 研究部主管
+852 2899 6747

三生制药( 1530 HK) | 买入 | HKD22 生物技术与制药
中国中药( 570 HK) | 买入 | HKD5.95 生物技术与制药
金斯瑞生物科技( 1548 HK) | 买入 | HKD34.5 生物技术与制药
雅各臣科研製药( 2633 HK) | 买入 | HKD2.5 生物技术与制药
丽珠集团( 1513 HK) | 买入 | HKD51.9 生物技术与制药
绿叶制药( 2186 HK) | 买入 | HKD5.4 生物技术与制药
四环医药( 460 HK) | 买入 | HKD6.65 生物技术与制药
联邦制药( 3933 HK) | 买入 | HKD9.6 生物技术与制药
国药控股( 1099 HK) | 买入 | HKD42.75 卫生保健设施/服务
康宁医院( 2120 HK) | 买入 | HKD51.17 卫生保健设施/服务
山东威高( 1066 HK) | 中性 | HKD6.35 医疗设备

China Healthcare On demand for anti-viral flu drugs - 1月 17, 2018 (5 页)  
On 13 Jan 2018, Xinhua News cited that medical centres in Beijing has been on tightening sentiment for their Oseltamivir inventory, a potent anti-viral flu drug. We see HK-listed HEC Pharm’s (1558.HK, Non-rated) Kewei, a generic version of Tamiflu®, will continue to enjoy anti-viral flu drug demand. Should any viral flu outbreak occurs in China, HK-listed HEC Pharm, Sinopharm (1099.HK, BUY, TP:HKD42.75) and SSY Group (2005.HK, NR) would likely benefit.

金斯瑞生物科技(1548 HK) | 买入 | HK$34.5 萧智舜
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) 124% TP upside post all INDs for CAR-T drug - 1月 3, 2018 (10 页)  
On 27 Dec 17, Genscript announced to acquire Customarray Inc, an US’s oligo-DNA service provider. Also on 22 Dec, Janssen Biotech (Johnson & Johnson’s company) agreed to collaborate and invest to Genscript at USD350m on CAR-T. Albeit of bigger R&D cost to sales, our SOTP-TP rises to HKD34.50 on higher CAR-T’s (pipeline) success probability, and treatment cost. Should its CAR-T drug attain all IND approvals, our TP will offer 124% upside vs. current price. Keep BUY.
金斯瑞生物科技(1548 HK) | 买入 | HK$24.2 萧智舜
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) CAR-T drug’s China IND likely by end-2Q18 - 12月 21, 2017 (6 页)  
From the list of trial medicines announced on 18 Dec by China Centre for Drug Evaluation, Genscript’s CAR-T medicine (LCAR-B38M) had been included into China FDA’s priority review list for Investigational New Drug (IND) status. We reckon this IND approval time will be as early as by end-2Q18, against our previous expectation by end-2018. Moreover, we keep our existing probability of success (pipeline), R&D valuation and TP. Maintain BUY.
金斯瑞生物科技(1548 HK) | 买入 | HK$24.2 萧智舜
Genscript Biotech (1548 HK) CAR-T leads to 161% TP upside post US’s IND - 12月 18, 2017 (9 页)  
On 10 Dec, Genscript had presented its CAR-T work for blood cancer with decent result in American Society of Hematology. Its CAR-T drug application to CFDA for investigational new drug (IND) was accepted on 11 Dec. Adding new R&D valuation with probability of success, our risk-adjusted SOTP-TP climbs to HKD24.20 (from HKD7.00), providing 74% upside and lifting Genscript a BUY. Should its CAR-T drug attain US’s IND by end-1Q18, TP will offer 161% upside from current price.
雅各臣科研製药(2633 HK) | 买入 | HK$2.5 萧智舜
Jacobson Pharma (2633 HK) More looking at next year’s growth - 11月 28, 2017 (10 页)  
On 22 Nov market close, Jacobson Pharm (JP) reported its 3/1H18 net profit at HKD80m. Without the listing expenses in 3/1H17, core profit of HKD81m was up 2% y-o-y, making up a mere 31% of our full-year total (3/1H17: 40%), on bigger finance cost having less capitalized. Albeit of our earnings cut, we roll over our SOTP’s base year to 3/FY19F and our TP rises to HKD2.50. This reflects a 20.5x 3/FY19F P/E, +1.5SD above past 5-year sector’s PE mean. Maintain BUY.
三生制药(1530 HK) | 买入 | HK$22 萧智舜
3SBIO Inc (1530 HK) Multiple catalysts to brighten up in 2018 - 11月 23, 2017 (38 页)  
We initiate our BUY coverage on 3SBio with DCF-TP at HKD22.00 (40% upside). This implies 48.0x FY18F P/E (30.7x EV/EBITDA) at 2.5x PEG, consistent with HK sector mean. Our valuation is justified on its (1) being China largest biodrug maker with 21% EPS CAGR (FY16-19) and (2) pioneer in blood market drugs; (3) multiple catalysts in 2018 including to be a global OEM provider for biodrugs. Should Bydureon (diabetic) sales to crystallize in 2018, TP will offer another 20% upside.












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