联邦制药 (3933 HK) 销售额及利润率继续回升 - 9月 11, 2018 (8 页)
|
|
联邦制药8月29日公布其2018年中期净利润为人民币9100万元，核心利润为人民币3.99亿元（17年中期：人民币6800万元），超出我们18财年预期并占分析师一致预期的71%，归因于更高的6-APA与原料药价格及更大的利润率。我们预计2018年(1)二代胰岛素销量将达1500万支（17财年：1300万）；及(2)甘精胰岛素销售额将达人民币5500万元（17财年：人民币4600万元）。我们维持买入评级，而基于对现金流折现法估值加回净债务部分及更高的WACC假设，下调分部总和目标价至10.10港元。
|
|
|
Healthy 2018 insulin outlook - 4月 3, 2018 (9 页)
|
|
United Lab, on 28 Mar, released its FY17 earnings at RMB82m, while core profit of RMB263m beat ours of RMB117m but below consensus (FY16: -RMB60m). Post briefing, we see, in 2018, (1) 6-APA prices to stay high at RMB210-230/ton (FY17: RMB200/t); (2) 2nd gen insulin sales at 15m vials (FY17: 13m); and (3) Glargin sales to double from 2017. If all 3rd gen insulin starts sales, our TP will offer 77% upside vs current price. Keep BUY with lower TP of HKD11.00 on higher WACC.
|
|
|
China Healthcare Focus on biotech and high-end drugmakers - 3月 14, 2018 (18 页)
|
|
In the upcoming (Dec-ended) result season and from those stocks we actively cover, we expect biotech (Genscript) and high-end drugmakers (3SBio and Livzon Pharm) to have in-line results with Bloomberg consensus and ours. Moreover, concentrated Chinese medicine granule (CCMG) leader (China TCM) is forecast to beat consensus, on recovering finished drug and stable CCMG sales and margins. We see drug-makers like United Lab, Luye and Sinopharm as the key distributor would likely fall short of consensus estimate.
|
|
|
The United Lab (3933 HK) 113% TP upside post 3rd gen insulin approvals - 2月 9, 2018 (13 页)
|
|
United Lab (UL) announced its insulin aspart (门冬胰岛素) application for production permit had been accepted by CFDA on 15 Nov 2017. We expect it to start sales in mid-2019. Albeit of our FY17F-19F earnings cut on bigger production cost, we add the R&D valuation for all insulin sales, lifting our TP to HKD11.20. Should all 3rd gen insulin start sales, our TP will offer 113% upside vs current price. Keep BUY.
|
|
|
The United Lab (3933 HK) Good upstream pricing sustainable - 8月 28, 2017 (8 页)
|
|
On 24 Aug, United Lab (UL) reported its 1H17 earnings at RMB109m. Without one-off items, it reduced to RMB68m (ours: RMB32m), but turned around from 1H16’s net loss of RMB23m. Post Management update, in 2017, we see (1) 6-APA pricing to sustain high at over RMB185/ton; (2) 2nd gen insulin sales to 13m vials (1H17: 4.4m) down from previous 15m; (3) Glargin to have RMB21m sales. Keep BUY with higher SOTP-TP at HKD9.60 on bigger sales and smaller opex to sales.
|
|
|
The United Lab (3933 HK): Positive profit alert as expected - 8月 18, 2017 (4 页)
|
|
United Lab (UL) issued a positive profit alert during mid-day on 17 Aug 2017. The company’s interim result for 1H17 is expected to report a net profit of RMB100m, compared to 1H16 of a net loss at RMB13m. This is due to: (1) bigger intermediate and bulk medicine sales; and (2) lower production cost from higher utilization of production capacity in Inner Mongolia. We expect UL’s 1H17 result will likely reproduce its underlying net profit value as in 2H16 of RMB32m or HKD37m (1H16: -RMB43m or -HKD51m).
|
|
|
|
The United Lab (3933 HK) TP still at 51% upside; Upbeat on Glargin - 3月 27, 2017 (7 页)
|
|
United Lab (UL), on 22 Mar, reported its net loss at HKD311m. Without one-off items, it improved to -HKD13m (ours: -HKD60m) with 2H16 at a net profit of HKD37m. Post Management’s update, in 2017, we are upbeat on: (1) 6-APA pricing to rebound; (2) 2nd gen insulin sales at 15m vials (FY16: 11.1m); (3) Glargin to have HKD10m sales. Maintain BUY with higher TP at HKD8.30 on smaller finance cost.
|
|
|
|
联邦制药 (3933 HK) 第三代胰岛素获批,目标价有49%上升空间 - 1月 8, 2017 (7 页)
|
|
在17年1月6日收市后, 联邦制药 (3933 HK) 宣布其甘精胰岛素（第三代胰岛素）已获得中国国家食药监总局批准,与我们在2016年底的预期一致。我们预计它将在17年第二季度开始销售,但预计直到2019年才有净利润。虽然我们大削其盈利预测基于更困难的抗生素前景,加入甘精胰岛素的估值为每股4.32港元后,我们的目标价升至7.80港元（从4.00港元）。我们的新目标价反映了12.2倍2017财年EV / EBITDA,与行业目标中位数12.5倍相若。重申买入评级。
|
|